Robust Bayesian Optimization with Q-Exponential Surrogates

Abstract

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a widely used framework for optimizing expensive black-box objectives, but standard BO methods often use Gaussian process (GP) surrogates whose Gaussian assumption is sensitive to outliers and heavy-tailed noise. We introduce q-ED-BO, a robust BO method whose surrogate follows a univariate q-exponential (q-ED) distribution, preserving GP-BO's closed-form posterior mean and variance while a shape parameter q controls the tail behavior, recovering the GP at q = 2 and growing heavier-tailed with wider confidence bounds as q decreases. This tractability yields a closed-form q-upper confidence bound (q-UCB) with sublinear regret, and an exact closed-form q-expected improvement (q-EI) that generalizes EI to the heavy-tailed predictive, recovering classical EI at q = 2. Experiments on beamformer and adaptive filter tuning with impulsive outliers show that q-ED-BO matches or exceeds existing baselines on clean data, and under corruption, improves the strongest baseline by approximately 0.7 dB in output SINR and 1.1 to 1.2 dB in misalignment reduction.