One-step lowest-variance selection in a Gaussian random-field model motivated by masked diffusion: Total correlation and a square root collision threshold

Abstract

Motivated by confidence-guided parallel unmasking in masked discrete diffusion, we study a single selection step in a stylized Gaussian random-field model. A locally dependent nonnegative score field represents position wise uncertainty, and the scheduler selects the K positions with the smallest scores. Dependence among the selected positions is measured through a distance-dependent Gaussian correlation model. This separation provides a tractable framework for quantifying how the geometry of low-score locations affects the dependence cost of factorized parallel decoding. We establish two complementary results. In a conservative sub-square-root regime, the conditional Gaussian total correlation of the selected block vanishes in probability. At the square-root scale, it remains non-negligible with positive asymptotic probability and admits a strictly positive expectation lower bound. Synthetic experiments support the predicted finite-size behavior. These results provide a rigorous stochastic-geometry baseline for understanding how budget size, score dependence, and spatial correlation jointly shape one-step confidence-based selection in masked discrete diffusion.