Identifiability-Aware Source Apportionment in City-Scale Advection-Diffusion Systems

Abstract

Source apportionment from sparse urban air-quality sensors is an inverse problem limited by sensor placement, wind-driven transport, background variation, and noise. Known or proxy emission inventories make attribution meaningful by restricting the unknown source field to a finite set of candidate groups, but do not guarantee those groups are distinguishable from the observations. We represent time-varying source activity with a low-dimensional nonnegative temporal basis and formulate inventory-based apportionment as a wind-conditioned lagged inverse problem in which each source--basis coefficient produces a sensor-time fingerprint. After projecting out a separate low-dimensional background space, the relevant object is the projected lagged response matrix $\widetilde H_Φ$: exact identifiability at the chosen basis resolution requires its full column rank, while noise-robust attribution is controlled by its singular values, coefficient visibility, background absorption, pairwise coherence, and ray distance. We propose an identifiability-aware apportionment (IASA) framework that estimates nonnegative source--basis coefficients, reconstructs activity trajectories, and reports uncertainty and conservative grouping recommendations for indistinguishable sources. We instantiate it on a New Delhi platform built from government PM$_{2.5}$ and wind records, regulatory sensor locations, and four proxy source groups, and define controlled and observed evaluations of recovery, ambiguity, wind diversity, background stress, transport error, inventory robustness, and residual adequacy. IASA reports the attribution resolution defensible under the declared inventories, transport, background, lag, and noise rather than the most detailed possible vector.