Von Mises Based Uncertainty Quantification for Closely Spaced Automotive Radar Targets

Abstract

This work investigates uncertainty-aware deep learning approaches for direction of arrival (DOA) estimation in automotive radar, focusing on probabilistic modeling and downstream integration. A circular-statistics-based von Mises (VM) ensemble (ENS) is compared with an evidential deep learning (EDL) framework based on a normal inverse gamma formulation, yielding a Student t predictive distribution in the Euclidean domain. The ENS framework produces angular predictions parameterized by (mu, kappa), enabling interpretable uncertainty aligned with directional geometry. Performance is evaluated under in distribution and multiple out-of-distribution conditions using risk coverage and ROC or AUROC analyses. Results indicate that ENS achieves lower uncertainty under nominal conditions and exhibits stronger sensitivity to severe perturbations, whereas EDL provides smoother uncertainty variation and slightly improved ranking consistency. Importantly, the ENS representation enables direct probabilistic integration into association modules via closed form VM likelihoods, facilitating a unified detection tracking pipeline. These findings highlight a trade-off between geometric consistency and statistical generality in uncertainty-aware DOA estimation.