Robust Checkpoint Selection for Multimodal LLMs via Agentic Evaluation and Stability-Aware Ranking

Abstract

Checkpoint selection for multimodal large language models (MLLMs) presents significant challenges when performance differentials are marginal and evaluation signals are prone to noise. Existing methodologies rely heavily on static benchmarks or pointwise scoring, which frequently misalign with in-the-wild usage and lack robust uncertainty estimation, particularly in OCR-heavy scenarios. In this work, we formulate checkpoint selection as a robust decision problem under evaluation uncertainty. We propose a multi-stage framework that integrates curated real-world data, structured LLM-based judgment, and multi-stage ranking protocols. The evaluation system orchestrates progressive refinement via pointwise filtering, listwise ranking, and pairwise comparison. To enhance reliability, we introduce subsampling-based confidence estimation and a percentile-based scoring formulation that captures distributional characteristics while penalizing tail failures. Furthermore, we demonstrate that data quality, specifically OCR readability, is a critical determinant of evaluation validity.