Personalized Deep Learning for Short-Term Forecasting of Impending Atrial Fibrillation from Continuous Wearable ECG Signals

Abstract

Background and Objective: Continuous wearable electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring is increasingly used for ambulatory arrhythmia surveillance, yet forecasting impending atrial fibrillation (AF) is challenged by inter-patient ECG variability. This study investigated whether personalizing a global model via fine-tuning on an individual's ECG signals improves short-term forecasting of impending AF. Methods: A global model trained on the ICENTIA11K dataset was compared against personalized models fine-tuned across three cohorts: ICENTIA11K, IRIDIA-AF, and MobiCARE. Following preprocessing, models processed 60-second ECG segments for a five-minute forecast horizon. We evaluated the impact of adaptation data volume and analyzed ECG features, such as heart rate and RMSSD. Results: Personalized models significantly outperformed the global model, achieving AUROCs of 0.711 vs. 0.614 in ICENTIA11K and 0.686 vs. 0.585 in MobiCARE. Personalization benefits increased with the amount of patient-specific fine-tuning data. While the global model's accuracy rose as AF onset approached, personalized models in the two external cohorts exhibited distinct temporal dynamics, which may indicate the capture of patient-specific characteristics less dependent on proximity to the AF event. Pre-AF episodes showed elevated heart rates and RMSSD. Feature attributions highlighted clinically relevant precursors, including frequent premature atrial complexes (PACs) and short supraventricular tachycardias (SVTs). Conclusions: Adapting deep learning models with patient-specific wearable ECG data significantly enhances short-term forecasting of impending AF. This personalized framework supports timely preventive interventions and improved AF management in ambulatory monitoring environments.