Parameters Overshadowed by Price Lags: Load, Climate, and Calendar Effects in ERCOT Day-Ahead Price Formation

Abstract

Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical for smart grid stability, yet the heavy reliance on historical price lags in modern predictive models often obscures the fundamental physical drivers of market volatility. This paper proposes a regime-sensitive, explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) framework to unmask the hidden roles of load, climate, and calendar variables in the ERCOT Day-Ahead Market (2014-2024). Utilizing a Histogram-based Gradient Boosting Regressor (HGBR), we introduce a Suppression Ratio to quantify how price lags overshadow physical parameters. Our analysis reveals that while lags provide short-term memory during normal conditions, they fail to capture extreme dynamics; notably, their inclusion increased forecasting error (MAE/RMSE) during price spikes. By isolating these effects, the study revealed that price spikes are not merely the result of continuously rising temperatures, but rather emerge from the system reacting sharply within a specific temperature range. These findings underscore the importance of moving beyond lag-based models to uncover the true drivers of extreme price events.