Generalized Conformal Predictive Systems Under Distributional Shifts

Abstract

Conformal predictive systems (CPS) output calibrated bands of CDFs under exchangeability. We extend generalized CPS to non-exchangeable settings by encoding distributional shifts through observation-specific permutation weights. This yields shift-aware predictive systems that remain valid whenever the test point is, conditionally on the unordered sample, a weighted draw from the observed atoms. Since such weights are typically estimated, we introduce weight-uncertainty boxes and construct robust CPS envelopes with finite-sample or asymptotic confidence guarantees. We derive efficient computation for conformity-measure CPS, conformal binning, and conformal isotonic distributional regression. Experiments under covariate shift and feedback-driven biomolecular design show calibrated predictive bands that widen under stronger shifts and tighten as sample size increases.