From Outliers to Errors: Auditing Pali-to-English LLM Translations with Multi-Reference Adjudication

Abstract

Single-score translation metrics can conflate legitimate variation with error, a problem especially acute for classical languages where multiple defensible English renderings of the same passage coexist. We audit Pali-to-English output from four flagship large language models (LLMs): GPT-5.5, Claude Sonnet 4.6, Gemini 3.1 Pro, and Grok 4.3, on 1,700 passages from the Pali Canon, using three established human translations by Bhikkhu Sujato, Thanissaro Bhikkhu, and Bhikkhu Bodhi as a local reference envelope rather than a single gold standard. Each candidate's normalized embedding drift from the reference centroid serves as a triage signal, not an error label; the 1,203 candidates above a 1.5 drift threshold are then adjudicated by a blinded three-model LLM judge panel, calibrated against a 300-instance author-adjudicated validation set. Two results stand out. First, drift predicts severity rather than error per se: the major-error rate among adjudicated high-drift candidates rose monotonically from 7.9% in the 1.5-2.0 band to 51.6% above 3.0, while approximately 80% of 1.5-2.0 outliers were judged valid translation variations. Second, model differences were clearest in the high-drift tail: GPT-5.5 had the lowest adjudicated high-drift major-error rate, with confidence intervals overlapping those of Claude Sonnet 4.6 and Gemini 3.1 Pro; Grok 4.3 had both the largest outlier volume and the highest tail major-error rate (27.6% overall, 74.4% above drift 3.0). The dominant major-error categories (e.g. omission or truncation, doctrinal term errors) are precisely the failures most likely to mislead readers of doctrinal text. The contribution is a reusable audit design for classical-to-modern translation: define a local reference envelope from multiple human translators, use embedding drift to prioritize review, and adjudicate the flagged tail rather than treating outlier status as error.