Contingency Detection Integrated Model Predictive Control for Resilient Load Frequency Control

Abstract

Contingencies can alter power-system dynamics and introduce prediction mismatch in model predictive control (MPC)-based load frequency control (LFC). Although such events may be detected or cleared by protection systems, the corresponding post-contingency dynamic model may not be available to the MPC controller on the LFC time scale. This paper proposes a contingency detection-integrated MPC (CDI-MPC) framework that combines disturbance-aware contingency detection with predictive frequency regulation. Contingencies are modeled as stochastic discrete events of a stochastic hybrid system (SHS), and a disturbance-aware residual formulation is developed to jointly identify the active mode and estimate unknown disturbances. The detected mode is then used to update the MPC prediction model, reducing contingency-induced prediction mismatch under changing operating conditions. Simulation results demonstrate accurate contingency detection and substantial improvements in closed-loop LFC performance under multiple contingency scenarios and unknown disturbances.