Conditional Random Ordered Transport Spaces

Abstract

A small Wasserstein distance does not certify that a transformation is admissible. In evidence-constrained, semantic, causal, physical, monotone, or risk-sensitive learning, one must ask not only how far two probability laws are, but whether mass has moved in a direction allowed by available information. We introduce conditional random ordered transport spaces (CROTS), a class of \(L^0\)-valued spaces of random probability measures equipped with a Wasserstein ambient metric, a closed stochastic order, hard and soft ordered transport discrepancies, and a conditional risk functional for evaluating order violation under an evidence sigma-field. The central object is an order-admissible transport geometry for random measure-valued dynamics, distinct from cone-valued metrics, ordered Kantorovich constructions, random Wasserstein spaces alone, and model-specific residuals for generative paths. We develop the foundations of CROTS as a space theory for reliable distributional learning. The results include well-posedness and duality for hard and soft ordered transport, soft-to-hard variational convergence, measurability and completeness of the random lifted space, reductions to classical Wasserstein and ordered geometries, ordered geodesics, constrained barycenters and projections, conditional risk-transport duality, and separation of order-violating distributions. The main stability theorem shows that random learning dynamics may converge in the ambient Wasserstein metric while its local admissibility leakage follows a separate conditional order-risk recursion. The resulting asymptotic order-risk floor provides a mathematical language for evidence overreach, ordered distribution shift, robustness failure, and admissible distributional dynamics.