Causal Intelligence for Constraint-Aware Intervention Design to Induce State Transitions

Abstract

Driving a system from one state to another through targeted interventions is a fundamental challenge in science, yet most predictive models offer limited mechanistic insight and no principled framework for decision-making. Here we present COAST (Causally Optimal Actions for State Transitions), a causal-intelligence approach for the in-silico design of constrained interventions that induce user-defined state transitions. Given data characterizing source and target states, COAST learns context-specific causal graphs and structural causal models, attributes observed distributional shifts to mechanism-level causal drivers, and introduces a novel constraint-aware multi-objective optimization formulation that balances transition efficacy, intervention complexity, and target-state stability. The approach is modular and domain-agnostic, integrating feature selection, causal discovery, causal modeling, and intervention identification and evaluation through interchangeable components. Across synthetic benchmarks and real biological datasets, COAST recovers key causal drivers and identifies robust single- and multi-target intervention strategies that achieve desired state transitions, accompanied by transparent mechanistic rationales to guide experimental validation.