An Evidential Reasoning Approach for Aerial Target Classification and Intent Prediction

Abstract

Timely classification and intent prediction of aerial targets is crucial for a combat aircraft to make informed tactical decisions. The prevailing approach for aerial target classification relies on data-driven models using time-series data. These models perform well with long-duration data; however, this is impractical in combat situations involving rapidly evolving threats that demand quick decisions. Minimizing false predictions is essential, as uncertainty is preferable to incorrect assessments in high-risk environments. Here, we propose an integrated approach to target classification and intent prediction that enables decisions from partial data in settings where threats require rapid response. In the proposed method, predictions are generated from short sequential sub-samples instead of the entire time series, and the results are refined by propagating beliefs across sub-samples. Outputs from classifiers are combined through an evidential reasoning framework to manage uncertainty. Target intent is inferred using rule-based techniques and a distance-based combination method to fuse information over time. Due to lack of publicly available datasets, a dataset for aerial target classification was generated for evaluation. A case study involving eight targets is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach, whereby accuracies of 88% and 93% are achieved for target type classification and intent prediction, respectively.