A Minimal Dynamical Model for Incubation-Outbreak Transitions in Social Norm Diffusion

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a minimal dynamical model for the diffusion of a new social norm, in which individuals transition among three states: non-supporters, silent supporters, and vocal advocates. Despite its simplicity and its close relation to the classical SI-type and SIS-type spreading dynamics, this model exhibits a nontrivial latent-outbreak dynamic pattern: an initial small adoption wave is followed by a long quiescent period and then an abrupt, endogenous explosion of support. Through a complete analytical characterization of equilibria, stability, convergence, and phase-transition conditions, we identify the nonlinear mechanism that generates this incubation phenomenon and derive estimates of the latent period. Our results reveal a dynamical route to sudden social change driven purely by internal interactions rather than external shocks.